Joining the Dots: The FOMC and the future path of policy rates

Stefan Gerlach and Rebecca Stuart
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Stefan Gerlach: BSI Bank and CEPR

No 08/RT/16, Research Technical Papers from Central Bank of Ireland

Abstract: The Federal Reserve publishes since 2012 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members' views regarding what federal funds rate will be necessary for the FOMC to achieve its statutory targets. The views or "projections" pertain to the end of the current and the next two or three years, and the "longer run." We use a simple model to interpolate the projections between these discrete points in time, estimate the interest rates one, two and three years ahead, and study how they evolve with macroeconomic conditions. News regarding the labour market, but not inflation, effects the projections in the sample period.

Keywords: Federal Reserve; monetary policy; interest rate expectations; interpolation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Working Paper: Joining the dots: The FOMC and the future path of policy rates (2016)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cbi:wpaper:08/rt/16

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