Identifying and Forecasting House Price Dynamics in Ireland

Antonello D'Agostino, Kieran McQuinn and Gerard O' Reilly
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Gerard O' Reilly: Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Gerard Patrick O'Reilly

No 3/RT/08, Research Technical Papers from Central Bank of Ireland

Abstract: While increased attention has, of late, focussed on models of house prices, few,if any, studies have examined house prices from a purely forecasting perspective. However, the need for accurate and timely forecasts of house prices has grown as the rate of house price inflation is more and more important to policy discussions such as those governing decisions on inflation. This is further underscored with the development of financial markets products based on houseprice index. In this paper, we propose that a simple univariate moving average (MA) model can provide optimal forecasts of Irish house price inflation when compared with a suite of standard forecasting and structural house price models. This result echoes similar recent findings for forecasts of US inflation rate.

JEL-codes: C53 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 20 pages
Date: 2008-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for, nep-geo, nep-mac and nep-ure
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cbi:wpaper:3/rt/08

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