The Last Mile of Monetary Policy: Inattention, Reminders, and the Refinancing Channel

Shane Byrne, Kenneth Devine, Michael King, Yvonne McCarthy and Christopher Palmer
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Shane Byrne: Central Bank of Ireland and Trinity College Dublin
Kenneth Devine: Central Bank of Ireland and University College Dublin
Michael King: Trinity College Dublin
Yvonne McCarthy: Central Bank of Ireland
Christopher Palmer: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, NBER, and J-PAL

No 6/RT/23, Research Technical Papers from Central Bank of Ireland

Abstract: Under-refinancing limits the transmission of accommodative monetary policy to the household sector and costs mortgage holders in many countries a significant fraction of income annually. We test whether targeted communication can reduce the attention frictions that inhibit transmission by partnering with a large bank to analyze a field experiment testing messages sent to 12,000 Irish households. While we find only small effects of disclosure design improvements, a reminder letter increases refinancing by 76%, from 8.9% to 15.7%. To interpret this reminder effect, we extend and estimate a mixture model of inattentive financial decision-making to allow for disclosure treatment effects on attention. We find that reminders increase the likelihood mortgage holders are attentive by over 60%, from 24% to 39%. A conservative back-of-the-envelope cost-effectiveness calculation implies that the average reminder letter generated e42 of mortgage borrower consumption (e605 per refinancing household). Our results illustrate that regulatory interventions to enhance lenders’ communication to customers, such as refinancing reminders - or, in a more theoretical setup, targeted central bank communications - could have a larger effect on refinancing than a standard policy rate cut. Reminders could further strengthen the refinancing channel and stimulate local consumption even when policy rates are at the zero-lower bound or set in a monetary union.

Keywords: Monetary policy transmission; inattention; refinancing; central bank communication; disclosure. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D83 E58 G21 G28 G51 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-exp, nep-mon and nep-ure
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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