THE EFFECT OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ON PUBLIC DEBT: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM ROMANIA, CROATIA AND BULGARIA

Onofrei Mihaela and Strachinaru Alin Vasile
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Onofrei Mihaela: ALEXANDRU I CUZA UNIVERSITY OF IASI, ROMANIA, FINANCE DEPARTMENT
Strachinaru Alin Vasile: ALEXANDRU I CUZA UNIVERSITY OF IASI, ROMANIA, DOMAIN FINANCE

Annals - Economy Series, 2023, vol. 2, 4-25

Abstract: Given the current socio-economic and political context (financial crisis, pandemic situation, socio-political conflicts etc.) some similar countries, from economic development point of view, such Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia have encountered difficulties in managing macroeconomic indicators with a pronounced impact on the public debt. The study captures an economic overview of this three countries, for years 2009 - 2021, with a quarterly frequency, by finding appropriate measures for recovery and sustainable development in the medium and long term. As an analysis tool, V A R - Vector Autoregression Model analyzes the correlation between public debt and gross domestic product, continuing with those macroeconomic indicators which have an significant impact on public debt (gross domestic product, unemployment, investments, house price index).

Keywords: Economic development; Public debt; Vector Autoregression Model; Multiple Regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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