Climate Change, Political Conflict, and Democratic Resilience

Austin Beacham, Emilie M Hafner-Burton and Christina J Schneider

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, Working Paper Series from Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, University of California

Abstract: The world is experiencing the increasingly destabilizing effects of climate change, but we currently know little about its effects on the quality of democracy. We argue that compounding climate shocks create conditions under which democratic resilience diminishes. The accelerated frequency and severity of climate-induced natural disasters and weather shocks, and their devastating economic and social consequences, have increased the likelihood and frequency of civil and political unrest, especially in contexts where climate-induced disasters compound and the government is unable to address citizen grievances. The necessity to respond to more frequent civil unrest and political instability increases the likelihood that governments rely on repressive measures that reduce democratic resilience. To test this argument, we explore whether compounded experiences with climate shocks increase the likelihood of a country experiencing a decline in democratic resilience. We find that the compounded effects of climate change significantly reduce the quality of democracy within the country, and that this is driven by increased instability and repressive measures in response. These findings have important implications for the future of democratic governance in a world increasingly confronted with the negative effects of climate change.

Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences; Climate; democracy; unrest; disasters; backsliding (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-12-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env and nep-pol
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