Is China on Track to Comply with Its 2020 Copenhagen Carbon Intensity Commitment?

Yuan Yang, Junjie Zhang and Can Wang

University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series from Department of Economics, UC San Diego

Abstract: In the 2009 Copenhagen Accord, China agreed to slash its carbon intensity (carbon dioxide emissions/GDP) by 40% to 45% from the 2005 level by 2020. We assess whether China can achieve the target under the business-as-usual scenario by forecasting its emissions from energy consumption. Our preferred model shows that China's carbon intensity is projected to decline by only 33%. The results imply that China needs additional mitigation effort to comply with the Copenhagen commitment. In addition, China's baseline emissions are projected to increase by 56% in the next decade (2011-2020). The emission growth is more than triple the emission reductions that the European Union and the United States have committed to in the same period.

Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences; climate change; carbon dioxide emissions; China; spatial econometrics. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014-01-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-env and nep-tra
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