A transição demográfica no contexto internacional

Fausto Brito
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Fausto Brito: Cedeplar-UFMG

Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG from Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais

Abstract: The goal of this article is to analyze the international context in which the demographic transition in Brazil is inserted: the context in which the world population moves towards zero growth, still in this century, in 2075, approximately, when it will have its maximum size, around 9,2 billion inhabitants. What would explain this radical change from a trajectory in direction to a demographic explosion to a trajectory in direction to the zero population growth? The deep and general decline of the fertility in the developing countries, not predicted even by the demographers. These demographic changes, the reduction of the population growth and its repercussions on the age structure, will be analyzed according to the different regions of the planet. Some developed countries, France and Italy, and the countries with the largest population in the world, China and India, will be highlighted.

Keywords: demographic transition; zero growth; decline in fertility; developed countries; developing countries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 29 pages
Date: 2007-09
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