A transição demográfica no Brasil: as possibilidades e os desafios para a economia e a sociedade

Fausto Brito
Additional contact information
Fausto Brito: Cedeplar-UFMG

Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG from Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais

Abstract: Between 1940 and 2000, 129 million inhabitants were added to the Brazilian population, an average of 21,5 million per decade. In the first half of XXI century, estimatives suggest, on average, an addition of 90 million inhabitants to the Brazilian population, 2,5 times the population of Argentina in 2005, 18 million inhabitants per decade. Less than in the previous century, but still a considerable population. This is the first demographic question to be analyzed in this article, from the perspective of its consequences for the public policies design. The second is the reduction of the fertility and not only its impact in the growth of the population, but also in the age structure. From the perspective of the transition of the age structure, three phenomena must be considered: reduction of the relative weight of the young population; increase of the degree of population aging, the ratio of people with sixty and five years of age or more; and the growth of the working-age population until 2050. The set of public policies that are conditioned by the age structure of the population, for example, the policies in the field of education, health, labor market and social security, must take into account the demographic changes. Otherwise, its efficiency will be reduced and it will not fulfill its main goal: economic development with reduction of the social inequalities.

Keywords: population growth; decline in fertility; age structure; public policies; Brazil (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 J18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 28 pages
Date: 2007-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.cedeplar.ufmg.br/pesquisas/td/TD%20318.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cdp:texdis:td318

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
Cedeplar-FACE-UFMG Av. Antonio Carlos, 6627 Belo Horizonte, MG 31270-901 Brazil

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG from Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais Cedeplar-FACE-UFMG Av. Antonio Carlos, 6627 Belo Horizonte, MG 31270-901 Brazil. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Gustavo Britto ().