Cenários de mudanças climáticas e agricultura no Brasil: impactos econômicos na Região Nordeste

Edson Domingues, Aline Souza Magalhães and Ricardo Machado Ruiz
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Aline Souza Magalhães: Cedeplar-UFMG
Ricardo Machado Ruiz: Cedeplar-UFMG

Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG from Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais

Abstract: This article examines the impact of climate change in the Northeast from estimates of the availability of land suitable for agricultural activity in a range of cultures. This information, based on global warming scenarios from the International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC), are introduced in an inter-regional computable general equilibrium model for Brazil, which allows analysis on various aspects of regional economic implications of this phenomenon. Our results indicate a high potential for economic losses in the Northeast, especially in poorer states, pointing to the need for policies to mitigate and control Greenhouse Gases (GHG) emissions. In the absence of such policies, the effects on employment can cause significant impacts on migratory flows, creating, for example, more pressure on infrastructure urban services in the metropolitan areas on the Northeast and other regions of the country.

Keywords: climate change; general equilibrium; regional economics Brazil (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q54 R13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 25 pages
Date: 2008-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-env
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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