Early-warning tools to forecast General Government deficit in the euro area: the role of intra-annual fiscal Indicators

Javier Pérez

No E2005/14, Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces from Centro de Estudios Andaluces

Abstract: In this paper I evaluate the usefulness of a set of fiscal indicators as early-warning-signal tools for annual General Government Net Lending developments for some EMU countries (Belgium, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, The Netherlands, Ireland, Austria, Finland) and an EMU aggregate. The indicators are mainly based on monthly and quarterly public accounts' figures. I illustrate how the dynamics of the indicators show a remarkable performance when anticipating general government accounts' movements, both in qualitative and in quantitative terms.

Keywords: Leading indicators; Fiscal forecasting and monitoring; General Government Deficit; European Monetary Union (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E6 H6 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 35 pages
Date: 2005
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-fin, nep-for, nep-mac and nep-pbe
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://public.centrodeestudiosandaluces.es/pdfs/E200514.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Early-warning tools to forecast general government deficit in the euro area: the role of intra-annual fiscal indicators (2005)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cea:doctra:e2005_14

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces from Centro de Estudios Andaluces c/ Bailén 50. 41001 Sevilla. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Susana Mérida ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).