Estimation of Probabilities for Ordered Sets and Application to Calibration of Rating Models

Gustavo F. Serenelli and Emiliano Delfau

No 849, CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. from Universidad del CEMA

Abstract: The goal of this document is to present a methodology for estimating probabilities for ordered sets. This may have several practical applications such as calibration of Rating Models, estimation of Mortality Tables or measurement of side effects related to different doze sizes. In order to do this, an Objective / Non Informative Bayesian approach is applied, through which, using a multidimensional Jeffreys prior, a posterior distribution may be inferred for each of the probabilities being estimated

Keywords: Bayesian estimation; probability estimation; uninformative prior; rating calibration; low default; ordered sets; jeffreys prior. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 15 pages
Date: 2023-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dcm and nep-ecm
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cem:doctra:849

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