Population Aging and Economic Growth: From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Drag?

Rainer Kotschy, David E. Bloom and Rainer Franz Kotschy
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Rainer Kotschy

No 10613, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: This paper examines the extent to which changes in working-age shares associated with population aging might slow economic growth in upcoming years. We first analyze the economic effects of changing working-age shares in a standard empirical growth model using country panel data from 1950–2015. We then juxtapose the estimates with predicted shifts in population age structure to project economic growth in 2020–2050. Our results indicate that population aging will slow economic growth throughout much of the world. Expansions of labor supply due to improvements in functional capacity among older people can cushion much of this demographic drag.

Keywords: population health; life expectancy; prospective aging; labor supply; economic development (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 O11 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-dem and nep-gro
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp10613.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Population Aging and Economic Growth: From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Drag? (2023)
Working Paper: Population Aging and Economic Growth: From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Drag? (2023)
Working Paper: Population Aging and Economic Growth: From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Drag? (2023)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10613

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Klaus Wohlrabe ().