Spain, Split and Talk: Quantifying Regional Independence

Hanna Adam, Mario Larch and Jordi Paniagua ()

No 10742, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: We quantify the economic impact of a potential secession of Catalonia from Spain. Using a novel dataset of trade flows between 17 Spanish sub-national regions and 142 countries, we estimate effects of different levels of borders on trade flows and uncover heterogeneity in country-to-country, region-to-country, region-to-region, as well as EU border effects. We use a general equilibrium analysis to understand the consequences of a potential Catalan secession, considering the associated political uncertainty. In counterfactual experiments, we impose new borders on Catalan trade, potentially within or outside the EU, resulting in a welfare decline for Catalonia and the remaining Spanish regions.

Keywords: international trade; regional trade; border effects; regional independence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F10 F13 F14 H77 R12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-geo, nep-ifn, nep-int and nep-ure
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Related works:
Working Paper: Spain, Split and Talk: Quantifying Regional Independence (2024)
Working Paper: Spain, Split and Talk: Quantifying Regional Independence (2024)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10742

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