Shipping Cost Uncertainty, Endogenous Regime Switching and the Global Drivers of Inflation

Christina Anderl and Guglielmo Maria Caporale

No 10798, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: The recent Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted global supply chains and led to large increases in shipping costs. This paper first provides shipping cost mean and uncertainty measures by using the endogenous regime switching model with dynamic feedback and interactions developed by Chang et al. (2023). The uncertainty indicator measures overall risk in the shipping market and is shown to represent a useful addition to the existing set of economic and financial uncertainty indices. Both the shipping cost mean and uncertainty measures are then included in structural VAR models for the US, the UK and the euro area to examine the pass-through to headline CPI, core CPI, PPI and import price inflation vis-à-vis other global and domestic shocks. The results suggest that shipping cost uncertainty shocks have sizeable effects on all inflation measures and are characterised by a stronger pass-through than that of other domestic or global shocks. Unlike the latter, they also affect significantly core CPI inflation. These findings imply that shipping cost mean and uncertainty should also be considered by policymakers when assessing the global drivers of inflation.

Keywords: shipping cost uncertainty; inflation pass-through; endogenous regime switching (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C13 E31 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-int and nep-mon
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Related works:
Journal Article: Shipping cost uncertainty, endogenous regime switching and the global drivers of inflation (2024)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10798

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