Opinion Polls, Turnout and the Demand for Safe Seats

Eleonora Alabrese and Thiemo Fetzer

No 11063, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: Do opinion polls sway turnout and shape political competition in majoritarian systems? Can they strengthen the persistence of safe seats? Analysing national opinion polls during UK general elections and the perceived safeness of constituencies, we find that pre-election polls significantly affect voter turnout. Non-competitive elections predicted by national polls suppress turnout, especially in areas with low perceived electoral competition. This reinforces the advantage of trailing parties in their strongholds, potentially fuelling party demand for safe seats that may give rise to demands for gerrymandering. This can exacerbate spatial polarization of the electoral landscape, with implications for governance regarding opinion polling.

Keywords: opinion polls; closeness; voters’ behaviour; first-past-the-post; UK general elections (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 P16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm and nep-pol
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Related works:
Working Paper: Opinion Polls, Turnout and the Demand for Safe Seats (2024)
Working Paper: Opinion Polls, Turnout and the Demand for Safe Seats (2024)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11063

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