Sustainable Social Spending in a Greying Economy with Stagnant Public Services: Baumol’s Cost Disease Revisited

Frederick (Rick) van der Ploeg

No 1822, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: Baumol’s cost disease states that relatively high productivity growth in manufacturing induces a steady increase in the relative price of human services. If demand for these services is inelastic or manufactured goods are necessities, the budget share of these services inexorably rises over time and labour gradually shifts from manufacturing to services. If the care for children and elderly releases time for households, labour supply and the budget share of human services expand over time. This paper addresses the sustainability of human services such as care and education in a greying economy if they are financed by labour taxes. A productivity growth differential in favour of the market sector pushes up the tax rate and public sector employment if private goods and public services are poor substitutes, labour supply is relatively inelastic and there are not too many pensioners and children. Private affluence and public squalor result if labour supply is very elastic, the dependency ratio is large and the market provides good substitutes for public services. Greying of the population boosts demand for public employment if the market provides poor substitutes for public services, but the provision of public services per dependent may fall due to the erosion of the tax base. Subsequently, we discuss the situation where market and public employment are imperfect substitutes for households, the utility of money is not constant and public sector productivity depends on public sector pay.

Keywords: Baumol's cost disease; Wagner's law; time price; congestion of public services; public squalor; private affluence; tax burden; cost of public funds; differential productivity growth; greying of population; public sector pay (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-pbe
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp1822.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1822

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Klaus Wohlrabe ().