Monetary Momentum
Andreas Neuhierl,
Michael Weber and
Michael Weber
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Michael Weber
No 6648, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo
Abstract:
We document a large return drift around monetary policy announcements by the Federal Open Market Committee. Stock returns start drifting up 25 days before expansionary monetary policy surprises, whereas they decrease before contractionary surprises. The cumulative return difference across expansionary and contractionary policy decisions amounts to 2.5% until the day of the policy move and continues to increase to more than 4.5% 15 days after the meeting. The return drift is a market-wide phenomenon, holds for all industries, and many international equity markets. In the cross section of stocks, size, value, profitability, and investment do not exhibit differential return drifts. Momentum is an exception, because past losers plummet around contractionary monetary policy surprises. A simple trading strategy exploiting the drift around FOMC meetings increases Sharpe ratios relative to a buy-and-hold investment by a factor of 4.
Keywords: return drift; policy speeches; expected returns; macro news (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E43 E44 E52 E58 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)
Downloads: (external link)
https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp6648.pdf (application/pdf)
Related works:
Working Paper: Monetary Momentum (2020) 
Working Paper: Monetary Momentum (2018) 
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6648
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Klaus Wohlrabe (wohlrabe@ifo.de).