Pandemics, places, and populations: evidence from the Black Death

Remi Jedwab, Noel Johnson () and Mark Koyama

No 7524, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: The Black Death killed 40% of Europe’s population between 1347-1352, making it one of the largest shocks in the history of mankind. Despite its historical importance, little is known about its spatial effects and the effects of pandemics more generally. Using a novel dataset that provides information on spatial variation in Plague mortality at the city level, as well as various identification strategies, we explore the short-run and long-run impacts of the Black Death on city growth. On average, cities recovered their pre-Plague populations within two centuries. In addition, aggregate convergence masked heterogeneity in urban recovery. We show that both of these facts are consistent with a Malthusian model in which population returns to high-mortality locations endowed with more rural and urban fixed factors of production. Land suitability and natural and historical trade networks played a vital role in urban recovery. Our study highlights the role played by pandemics in determining both the sizes and placements of populations.

Keywords: pandemics; Black Death; mortality; path dependence; cities; urbanization; Malthusian theory; migration; growth; Europe (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 N00 N13 O11 O47 R11 R12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-gro, nep-his and nep-ure
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (33)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Pandemics, Places, and Populations: Evidence from the Black Death (2019)
Working Paper: Pandemics, Places, and Populations: Evidence from the Black Death (2019)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7524

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