Measuring the Economic Risk of Epidemics

Ilan Noy, Nguyen Doan, Benno Ferrarini and Donghyun Park

No 8016, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: We measure the economic risk of epidemics at a geo-spatially detailed resolution. In addition to data about the epidemic hazard prediction, we use data from 2014-2019 to compute measures for exposure, vulnerability, and resilience of the local economy to the shock of an epidemic. Using a battery of proxies for these four concepts, we calculate the hazard (the zoonotic source of a possible epidemic), the principal components of exposure and vulnerability to it, and of the economy’s resilience (its ability of the recover rapidly from the shock). We find that the economic risk of epidemics is particularly high in most Africa, the Indian subcontinent, China, and Southeast Asia. These results are consistent when comparing an ad-hoc (equal) weighting algorithm for the four components of the index, with one based on an estimation algorithm using Disability-Adjusted Life Years associated with communicable diseases.

Keywords: epidemic; influenza; risk measurement; economic impact (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E01 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env, nep-hea, nep-mac and nep-sea
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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