Weather Shocks and Migration Intentions in Western Africa: Insights from a Multilevel Analysis

Simone Bertoli, Frédéric Docquier, Hillel Rapoport () and Ilse Ruyssen

No 8064, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: We use a multilevel approach to characterize the relationship between weather shocks and (internal and international) migration intentions. We combine individual survey data on migration intentions with measures of localized weather shocks for Western African countries over 2008-2016. A meta-analysis on results from about 310,000 regressions is conducted to identify the specification of weather anomalies that maximizes the goodness of fit of our empirical model. We then use this best specification to document heterogeneous mobility responses to weather shocks, which can be due to differences in long-term climatic conditions, migration perceptions, or adaptation capabilities. We find that droughts are associated with a higher probability of migration intentions in Senegal, Niger and Ivory Coast. The effect on international migration intentions are only significant in Niger. These effects are amplified, but qualitatively similar, when restricting the sample to rural low-skilled respondents.

Keywords: international migration; migration intentions; individual-level data; weather shocks; Western Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F22 J61 O13 O15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dem, nep-dev, nep-env, nep-int and nep-ure
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Weather shocks and migration intentions in Western Africa: insights from a multilevel analysis (2022)
Working Paper: Weather Shocks and Migration Intentions in Western Africa: Insights from a Multilevel Analysis (2020)
Working Paper: Weather shocks and migration intentions in Western Africa: Insights from a multilevel analysis (2019)
Working Paper: Weather shocks and migration intentions in Western Africa: Insights from a multilevel analysis (2019)
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