Gravity without Apology: The Science of Elasticities, Distance, and Trade

Celine Carrere, Monika Mrazova () and J. Peter Neary

No 8160, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: Gravity as both fact and theory is one of the great success stories of recent research on international trade, and has featured prominently in the policy debate over Brexit. We first review the facts, noting the overwhelming evidence that trade tends to fall with distance. We then introduce some expository tools for understanding CES theories of gravity as a simple general-equilibrium system. Next, we point out some anomalies with the theory: mounting evidence against constant trade elasticities, and implausible predictions for bilateral trade balances. Finally, we sketch an approach based on subconvex gravity as a promising direction to resolving them.

Keywords: bilateral trade balances; Brexit; elasticity of trade to distance; quantile regression; structural gravity and trade; subconvex demands (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F10 F14 F17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int and nep-ore
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (22)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Gravity Without Apology: the Science of Elasticities, Distance and Trade (2020)
Working Paper: Gravity without Apology: The Science of Elasticities, Distance, and Trade (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8160

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