Compliance with Covid-19 Social-Distancing Measures in Italy: The Role of Expectations and Duration

Guglielmo Briscese, Nicola Lacetera, Mario Macis and Mirco Tonin

No 8182, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: We study how intentions to comply with the self-isolation restrictions introduced in Italy to mitigate the Covid-19 epidemic respond to the length of their possible extension. Based on a survey of a representative sample of Italian residents (N=894), we find that respondents who are positively surprised by a given hypothetical extension (i.e. the extension is shorter than what they expected) are more willing to increase their self-isolation. In contrast, negative surprises (extensions longer than expected) are associated with a lower willingness to comply. In a context where individual compliance has collective benefits, but full enforcement is costly and controversial, communication and persuasion have a fundamental role. Our findings provide insights to public authorities on how to announce lockdown measures and manage people’s expectations.

Keywords: Covid-19; social distancing; expectations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C42 D91 H12 H41 I12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eur, nep-evo and nep-soc
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (104)

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Working Paper: Compliance with COVID-19 Social-Distancing Measures in Italy: The Role of Expectations and Duration (2020)
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