Arbitrage Pricing Theory, the Stochastic Discount Factor and Estimation of Risk Premia from Portfolios

Mohammad Pesaran and Ronald Smith

No 9001, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: The arbitrage pricing theory (APT) attributes differences in expected returns to exposure to systematic risk factors. Two aspects of the APT are considered. Firstly, the factors in the statistical asset pricing model are related to a theoretically consistent set of factors defined by their conditional covariation with the stochastic discount factor (SDF) used to price securities within inter-temporal asset pricing models. It is shown that risk premia arise from non-zero correlation of observed factors with SDF and the pricing errors arise from the correlation of the errors in the statistical model with SDF. Secondly, the estimates of factor risk premia using portfolios are compared to those obtained using individual securities. It is shown that in the presence of pricing errors consistent estimation of risk premia requires a large number of not fully diversified portfolios. Also, in general, it is not possible to rank estimators using individual securities and portfolios in terms of their small sample bias.

Keywords: arbitrage pricing theory; stochastic discount factor; portfolios; factor strength; identification of risk premia; two-pass regressions; Fama-MacBeth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C38 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cwa, nep-ecm, nep-ore and nep-upt
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Journal Article: Arbitrage pricing theory, the stochastic discount factor and estimation of risk premia from portfolios (2023)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9001

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