V for Vaccines and Variants

Domenico Delli Gatti, Severin Reissl and Enrico Turco

No 9291, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: We employ a new version of the ABC macro-epidemiological agent based model presented in Delli Gatti and Reissl (2020) to evaluate the effects of vaccinations and variants on the epidemic and macroeconomic outlook. Vaccination plays the role of a mitigating factor, reducing the frequency and the amplitude of contagion waves, while also significantly improving macroeconomic performance. The emergence of a variant, on the other hand, plays the role of an accelerating factor, increasing the volatility of epidemic curves and worsening the macroeconomic outlook. If a more contagious variant emerges after vaccination becomes available, therefore, the mitigating factor of the latter is at least partially offset by the former. A new and improved vaccine in turn can redress the situation. Vaccinations and variants, therefore, can be conceived of as drivers of an intertwined cycle impacting both epidemiological and macroeconomic developments.

Keywords: agent-based models; epidemic; Covid; vaccination; variant (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E21 E22 E24 E27 I12 I15 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hme, nep-isf, nep-mac and nep-ore
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Journal Article: V for vaccines and variants (2023)
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