Concrete Adaptation under Extreme Precipitation

Nicola Garbarino

No 419, ifo Working Paper Series from ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich

Abstract: Does land development adapt to changing climate risks? Extreme precipitation increases flood risk, yet land-use decisions may overlook rare events. Drawing on nearly half a century of climate and land-use data for Europe (1975–2020), this paper finds that extreme precipitation slows the expansion of built-up areas, though only slightly. The effect is stronger over longer horizons, consistent with a clearer climate signal. Adaptation is concentrated in fast-growing urban areas. An accounting framework that combines these effects suggests that relocation in response to shifting precipitation patterns has reduced damages by roughly 5%.

Date: 2025
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