An Alternative Reference Scenario for Global CO2Emissions from Fuel Consumption: An ARFIMA Approach

José Belbute
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Alfredo Marvao Pereira

CEFAGE-UE Working Papers from University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal)

Abstract: We provide alternative reference forecasts for global CO2 emissions based on an ARFIMA model estimated with annual data from 1750 to 2013. These forecasts are free from additional assumptions on demographic and economic variables that are commonly used in reference forecasts, as they only rely on the properties of the underlying stochastic process for CO2emissions, as well as on all the observed information it incorporates. In this sense, these forecasts are more based on fundamentals. Our reference forecast suggests that in 2030, 2040 and 2050, in the absence of any structural changes of any type, CO2 would likely be at about 25%, 34% and 39.9% above 2010 emission levels, respectively. These values are clearly below the levels proposed by other reference scenarios available in the literature. This is important, as it suggests that the ongoing policy goals are actually within much closer reach than what is implied by the standard CO2reference emission scenarios. Having lower and more realistic reference emissions projections not only gives a truer assessment of the policy efforts that are needed, but also highlights the lower costs involved in mitigation efforts, thereby maximizing the likelihood of more widespread energy and environmental policy efforts.

JEL-codes: C22 C53 O13 Q47 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 22 pages
Date: 2015
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-env and nep-for
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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Related works:
Journal Article: An alternative reference scenario for global CO2 emissions from fuel consumption: An ARFIMA approach (2015)
Working Paper: An Alternative Reference Scenario for Global CO2Emissions from Fuel Consumption: An ARFIMA Approach (2015)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cfe:wpcefa:2015_11

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