Portfolio Choice and Its Predictions on Japanese Municipalities in the 2040s

Yoshihiro Tamai, Chihiro Shimizu and Kiyohiko G. Nishimura
Additional contact information
Yoshihiro Tamai: Kanagawa University
Chihiro Shimizu: Nihon University and National University of Singapore
Kiyohiko G. Nishimura: University of Tokyo and National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies

No CARF-F-404, CARF F-Series from Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo

Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of aging population on property (land) prices. A theory of very long run portfolio choice is developed for a transition economy from young and growing to rapidly aging population and applied to estimate property price inflation in Japanese municipal markets. The results are stunning. The simulation results in which income factors are assumed to be fixed at the 2005- 2010 growth level suggest that the average residential property price (land price) in the Japanese municipalities may decrease as much as 19 percent from the present to 2020, 24 percent to 2030, and 32 percent to 2040.

Pages: 44 pages
Date: 2017-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-sea and nep-ure
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.carf.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/old/pdf/workingpaper/fseries/F404.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf404

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CARF F-Series from Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().