 The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and TheoryXiwen Bai Xiwen Bai (),
Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde,
Yiliang Li () and
Francesco Zanetti
No 2405, Discussion Papers from Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM) Abstract: We study the causal effects and policy implications of global supply chain disruptions. We construct a new index of supply chain disruptions from the mandatory automatic identification system data of container ships, developing a novel spatial clustering algorithm that determines real-time congestion from the position, speed, and heading of container ships in major ports around the globe. We develop a model with search frictions between producers and retailers that links spare productive capacity with congestion in the goods market and the responses of output and prices to supply chain shocks. The co-movements of output, prices, and spare capacity yield unique identifying restrictions for supply chain disturbances that allow us to study the causal effects of such disruptions. We document how supply chain shocks drove inflation during 2021 but that, in 2022, traditional demand and supply shocks also played an important role in explaining inflation. Finally, we show how monetary policy is more effective in taming inflation after a global supply chain shock than in regular circumstances. Keywords: supply chain disruptions; search-and-matching in the goods market; SVAR; state-dependence of monetary policy (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cfm:wpaper:2405 Access Statistics for this paper More papers in Discussion Papers from Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM) Contact information at EDIRC. |
Is your work missing from RePEc? Here is how to contribute.
Questions or problems? Check the EconPapers FAQ or send mail to .
EconPapers is hosted by the
School of Business at Örebro University.