Is the UK Productivity Slowdown Unprecedented?
Nicholas Crafts and
Terence C. Mills
Additional contact information
Terence C. Mills: Loughborough University
CAGE Online Working Paper Series from Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE)
Abstract:
We estimate trend UK labour productivity growth using a Hodrick-Prescott filter method. We use the results to compare downturns where the economy fell below its pre-existing trend. We find that the current productivity slowdown has resulted in productivity being 19.7% below the pre-2008 trend path in 2018. This is nearly double the previous worst productivity shortfall ten years after the start of a downturn. On this criterion the slowdown is unprecedented in the last 250 years. We conjecture that this reflects a combination of adverse circumstances, namely, a financial crisis, a weakening impact of ICT and impending Brexit.
Keywords: Brexit; financial crisis; Hodrick-Prescott filter; ICT; productivity slowdown JEL Classification: C22; N13; N14; O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-eff and nep-his
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:
Downloads: (external link)
https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/c ... /429-2019_crafts.pdf
Related works:
Journal Article: IS THE UK PRODUCTIVITY SLOWDOWN UNPRECEDENTED? (2020) 
Working Paper: Is the UK Productivity Slowdown Unprecedented? (2019) 
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cge:wacage:429
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in CAGE Online Working Paper Series from Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Jane Snape ().