Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite...Contamine? Estimating the impact of French municipal elections on COVID-19 spread in France

Guilhem Cassan and Marc Sangnier

CAGE Online Working Paper Series from Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE)

Abstract: We investigate the extent to which March 15, 2020 municipal elections contributed to the COVID-19 epidemics in France. We first predict each departement’s own dynamics using information up to the election to calibrate a standard logistic model. We then take advantage of electoral turnout differences between departements to identify the impact of the election on prediction errors in hospitalizations. We report a detrimental effect of the election in locations that were at relatively advanced stages of the epidemics by the time of the election. Estimates suggest that elections accounted for about 15% of all hospitalizations by the end of March.

Keywords: COVID-19; Hospitalizations; Electoral turnout; Municipal elections; Prediction errors. JEL Classification: (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eur
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

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Working Paper: Liberté, Egalité, Fraternité... Contaminé? Estimating the impact of French municipal elections on COVID-19 spread in France (2020)
Working Paper: Liberté, Egalité, Fraternité... Contaminé? Estimating the impact of French municipal elections on COVID-19 spread in France (2020)
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