New trends in South-South migration: The economic impact of COVID-19 and immigration enforcement

Roxana Gutiérrez-Romero and Nayeli Salgado

No 108, Working Papers from Queen Mary, University of London, School of Business and Management, Centre for Globalisation Research

Abstract: This paper evaluates the impact of the pandemic and enforcement at the US and Mexican borders on the emigration of Guatemalans during 2017-2020. During this period, the number of crossings from Guatemala fell by 10%, according to the Survey of Migration to the Southern Border of Mexico. Yet, there was a rise of nearly 30% in the number of emigration crossings of male adults travelling with their children. This new trend was partly driven by the recent reduction in the number of children deported from the US. For a one-point reduction in the number of children deported from the US to Guatemalan municipalities, there was an increase of nearly 14 in the number of crossings made by adult males leaving from Guatemala for Mexico; and nearly 0.5 additional crossings made by male adults travelling with their children. However, the surge of emigrants travelling with their children was also driven by the acute economic shock that Guatemala experienced during the pandemic. During this period, air pollution in the analysed Guatemalan municipalities fell by 4%, night light per capita fell by 15%, and homicide rates fell by 40%. Unlike in previous years, emigrants are fleeing poverty rather than violence. Our findings suggest that a reduction in violence alone will not be sufficient to reduce emigration flows from Central America, but that economic recovery is needed.

Keywords: Conflict; local economy; migration enforcement; Central America; pandemic (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C26 D74 F22 J15 K37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 31 pages
Date: 2022-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int, nep-mig and nep-ure
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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http://cgr.sbm.qmul.ac.uk/CGRWP108.pdf

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Working Paper: New trends in South-South migration: The economic impact of COVID-19 and immigration enforcement (2022)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cgs:wpaper:108

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