Forward premium puzzle and term structure of interest rates: the case of New Zealand

Carmen Gloria Silva

Working Papers Central Bank of Chile from Central Bank of Chile

Abstract: Using monthly data for the United States dollar – New Zealand dollar exchange rate, this paper revisits the forward premium puzzle and applies a discrete no-arbitrage affine model of the term structure of interest rates to obtain historical estimates of the time-varying foreign exchange risk premium. The two-factor model is estimated via maximum likelihood for the period 1995-2006. The results of this study demonstrate that the modeled risk premium satisfies the required Fama’s conditions, and its inclusion in an extended GARCH(1,1) model is significant in explaining both the mean and the volatility of the exchange rate. However, consistently with the extant literature, the estimated risk premium does not preclude the presence of the forward premium anomaly. Lastly, out-of-sample forecasts of the exchange rate for different specifications and time periods reveal that predictions of the proposed model for the exchange rate are far from the accuracy of a simple random walk specification.

Date: 2010-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.bcentral.cl/documents/33528/133326/DTBC_570.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:chb:bcchwp:570

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers Central Bank of Chile from Central Bank of Chile Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Alvaro Castillo ().