Impact of Governmental Interventions on Epidemic Progression and Workplace Activity during the COVID-19 Outbreak

Sumit Kumar Ram and Didier Sornette
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Sumit Kumar Ram: Department of Management, Technology, and Economics, ETH Zurich
Didier Sornette: ETH Zürich - Department of Management, Technology, and Economics (D-MTEC); Swiss Finance Institute

No 20-58, Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series from Swiss Finance Institute

Abstract: In the first quarter of 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic brought the world to a state of paralysis. During this period, humanity has seen by far the largest organized travel restrictions and unprecedented efforts and global coordination to contain the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Using large-scale human mobility and fine-grained epidemic incidence data, we develop a framework to understand and quantify the effectiveness of the interventions implemented by various countries to control epidemic growth. Our analysis reveals the importance of timing and implementation of strategic policy in controlling the epidemic. Through our analysis, we also unearth significant spatial diffusion of the epidemic before and during the lock-down measures in several countries, casting doubt on the effectiveness or on the implementation quality of the proposed Governmental policies.

Keywords: COVID-19; Effective reproduction number; Governmental interventions; Human mobility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 66 pages
Date: 2020-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2058

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