Intertemporal Choice Experiments and Large-Stakes Behavior

Diego Aycinena, Szabolcs Blazsek, Lucas Rentschler and Charles Sprenger
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Charles Sprenger: California Institute of Technology

Working Papers from Chapman University, Economic Science Institute

Abstract: Intertemporal choice experiments are increasingly implemented to make inference about discounting and marginal utility, yet little is known about the predictive power of resulting measures. This project links standard experimental choices to a decision on the desire to smooth a large-stakes payment — around 10% of annual income — through time. In a sample of around 400 Guatemalan Conditional Cash Transfer recipients, we find that preferences over large-stakes payment plans are closely predicted by experimental measures of patience and diminishing marginal utility. These represent the first findings in the literature on the predictive content of such experimentally elicited measures of discounting and marginal utility for a large-stakes decision.

Keywords: Structural estimation; Out-of-sample prediction; Discounting; Convex Time Budget (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D1 D3 D90 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dcm, nep-exp and nep-upt
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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https://digitalcommons.chapman.edu/esi_working_papers/331/

Related works:
Journal Article: Intertemporal choice experiments and large-stakes behavior (2022)
Working Paper: Intertemporal Choice Experiments and Large-Stakes Behavior (2020)
Working Paper: Intertemporal Choice Experiments and Large-Stakes Behavior (2019)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:chu:wpaper:20-36

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