Real-Time Data and Fiscal Policy Analysis: a Survey of the Literature

Jacopo Cimadomo

Working Papers from CEPII research center

Abstract: This paper surveys the empirical research on fiscal policy analysis based on real-time data. This literature can be broadly divided in three groups that focus on: (1) the statistical properties of Revisions in fiscal data; (2) the political and institutional determinants of projection errors by governments and (3) the reaction of fiscal policies to the business cycle. It emerges that, first, fiscal data revisions are large and initial releases are biased estimates of final values. Second, the presence of strong fiscal rules and institutions leads to relatively more accurate releases of fiscal data and small deviations of fiscal outcomes from government plans. Third, the cyclical stance of fiscal policies is estimated to be more ‘countercyclical’ when real-time data are used instead of ex-post data. Finally, more work is needed for the development of real-time datasets for fiscal policy analysis. In particular, a comprehensive real-time dataset including fiscal variables for industrialized (and possibly developing) countries, published and maintained by central banks or other institutions, is still missing.

Keywords: Fiscal policy; real-time data; data revisions; cyclical sensitivity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E62 H60 H68 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (36)

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Related works:
Journal Article: REAL-TIME DATA AND FISCAL POLICY ANALYSIS: A SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE (2016)
Working Paper: Real-time data and fiscal policy analysis: a survey of the literature (2011)
Working Paper: Real-time data and fiscal policy analysis: a survey of the literature (2011)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-20

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