Individual Survival Curves Comparing Subjective and Observed Mortality Risk

Luc Bissonnette, Michael Hurd and Pierre-Carl Michaud

CIRANO Working Papers from CIRANO

Abstract: In this paper, we compare individual survival curves constructed from objective (actual mortality) and elicited subjective information (probability of survival to a given target age). We develop a methodology to estimate jointly subjective and objective individualsurvival curves accounting for rounding on subjective reports of perceived mortality risk. We make use of the long follow-up period in the Health and Retirement Study and the high quality of mortality data to estimate individual survival curves which feature both observed and unobserved heterogeneity. This allows us to compare objective and subjective estimates of remaining life expectancy for various groups, evaluate subjective expectations of joint survival and widowhood by household, and compare objective and subjective mortality with standard life-cycle models of consumption.

Keywords: Subjective probabilities; old age mortality; joint survival of couples (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C81 D84 I10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-02-25
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-hea, nep-mfd and nep-rmg
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Downloads: (external link)
https://cirano.qc.ca/files/publications/2015s-08.pdf

Related works:
Journal Article: Individual survival curves comparing subjective and observed mortality risks (2017)
Working Paper: Individual Survival Curves Comparing Subjective and Observed Mortality Risks (2014)
Working Paper: Individual Survival Curves Comparing Subjective and Observed Mortality Risks (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cir:cirwor:2015s-08

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