The g3+ Model: An Upgrade of the Czech National Bank's Core Forecasting Framework

František Brázdik, Tibor Hledik, Zuzana Humplova, Iva Martonosi, Karel Musil, Jakub Rysanek, Tomáš Šestořád, Jaromir Tonner, Stanislav Tvrz and Jan Žáček

Working Papers from Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department

Abstract: This paper introduces g3+, the new core forecasting model of the Czech National Bank (CNB), which replaced the previous g3 model in July 2019. We present the features of the new core forecasting model together with our motivation for adopting them. The new structural features and extensions were motivated by our experience with using the g3 model for more than a decade as the core forecasting tool at the CNB. The new g3+ model features a novel structural foreign economy block, oil as a production factor, heterogeneous households, and other adjustments. Also, we present a new simulation approach that allows us to emulate limited information for the simulation of conditional forecasts. Furthermore, the introduction of the g3+ model on average preserves the forecasting performance of the CNBs DSGE modeling framework.

Keywords: Conditional forecast; DSGE; g3 model; oil; small open economy; two country model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C51 C53 E27 E37 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dge, nep-for and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2020/7

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