Charting the Uncharted: The (Un)Intended Consaequences of Oil Sanctions and Dark Shipping

Francesco Zanetti, Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Yiliang Li and Le Xu

No 25-009E, CIGS Working Paper Series from The Canon Institute for Global Studies

Abstract: We examine the rise of dark shipping– oil tankers disabling AIS transceivers to evade detection – amid Western sanctions on Iran, Syria, North Korea, Venezuela, and Russia. Using a machine learning-based ship clustering model, we track dark-shipped crude oil trade flows worldwide and detect unauthorized ship-to-ship transfers. From 2017 to 2023, dark ships transported an estimated 7.8 million metric tons of crude oil monthly– 43% of global seaborne crude exports– with China absorbing 15%. These sanctioned flows offset recorded declines in global oil exports but create distinct economic shifts. The U.S., a net oil exporter, faces lower oil prices but benefits from cheaper Chinese imports, driving deflationary growth. The EU, a net importer, contends with rising energy costs yet gains from Chinese demand, fueling inflationary expansion. China, leveraging discounted oil, boosts industrial output, propagating global economic shocks. Our findings expose dark shippings central role in reshaping oil markets and macroeconomic dynamics.

Pages: 83
Date: 2025-02
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Related works:
Working Paper: Charting the Uncharted: The (Un)Intended Consequences of Oil Sanctions and Dark Shipping (2025)
Working Paper: Charting the Uncharted: The (Un)Intended Consequences of Oil Sanctions and Dark Shipping (2025)
Working Paper: Charting the Uncharted: The (Un)Intended Consequences of Oil Sanctions and Dark Shipping (2025)
Working Paper: Charting the Uncharted: The (Un)Intended Consequences of Oil Sanctions and Dark Shipping (2025)
Working Paper: Charting the Uncharted: The (Un)Intended Consequences of Oil Sanctions and Dark Shipping (2025)
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