Cartels: The Probability of Getting Caught in the European Union

Emmanuel Combe, Constance Monnier and Renaud Legal
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Emmanuel Combe: Université de Paris I (Sorbonne), ESCP Business School, Collège d'Europe (Bruges)
Constance Monnier: Université de Paris I (Sorbonne), ESCP Business School
Renaud Legal: DREES, Ministère de la Santé, Paris

No 12, Bruges European Economic Research Papers from European Economic Studies Department, College of Europe

Abstract: In 1991, Bryant and Eckard estimated the annual probability that a cartel would be detected by the US Federal authorities, conditional on being detected, to be at most between 13 % and 17 %. 15 years later, we estimated the same probability over a European sample and we found an annual probability that falls between 12.9 % and 13.3 %. We also develop a detection model to clarify this probability. Our estimate is based on detection durations, calculated from data reported for all the cartels convicted by the European Commission from 1969 to the present date, and a statistical birth and death process model describing the onset and detection of cartels.

Keywords: cartels; duration analysis; birth and death process. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C34 C41 L41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 40 pages
Date: 2008-03
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (43)

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