Professional Forecasters: How to Understand and Exploit Them Through a DSGE Model

Luis Rojas

No 8945, Borradores de Economia from Banco de la Republica

Abstract: This paper derives a link between the forecasts of professional forecasters and a DSGEmodel. I show that the forecasts of a professional forecaster can be incorporated to the statespace representation of the model by allowing the measurement error of the forecast and thestructural shocks to be correlated. The parameters capturing this correlation are reducedform parameters that allow to address two issues i) How the forecasts of the professionalforecaster can be exploited as a source of information for the estimation of the model andii) How to characterize the deviations of the professional forecaster from an ideal completeinformation forecaster in terms of the shocks and the structure of the economy.

Keywords: Beneficio tributario al capital; exenciones a la inversión; impuestos distorsionantes. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E2 E6 H2 H3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 16
Date: 2011-08-15
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-dge, nep-ecm and nep-for
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
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http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra664.pdf

Related works:
Working Paper: Professional Forecasters: How to Understand and Exploit Them Through a DSGE Model (2011)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:col:000094:008945

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