The economic impacts of a hypothetical foot and mouth disease outbreak in Australia

Glyn Wittwer

Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers from Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre

Abstract: This study uses a multi-country, dynamic quarterly CGE model, GlobeTERM, to estimate the economic impacts of a hypothetical foot and mouth disease outbreak in Australia. State government protocols in response to an outbreak concerning Local Control Areas and disease eradication have local severe short-term economic impacts. However, the national welfare losses arising from the outbreak depend mostly on the duration of trade sanctions by importers of Australian animal products. If an outbreak is contained within several months, and trade sanctions are dropped within a year of the outbreak, the net present value of Australia’s welfare losses may be around $10 billion. If all importers restore Australian access within a year, other than China which delays by 5 years, welfare losses are around $21 billion. In a less likely scenario, in which trade sanctions persist in all trading partners for 5 years after the disease has been eradicated, contrary to international guidelines, welfare losses may exceed $85 billion. Trading partners also suffer welfare losses due to trade sanctions.

Keywords: CGE modelling; foot and mouth disease; trade sanctions; welfare; CGE modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C68 N50 Q17 R10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.copsmodels.com/ftp/workpapr/g-338.pdf Initial version, 2022-12 (application/pdf)
https://www.copsmodels.com/elecpapr/g-338.htm Local abstract: may link to additional material. (text/html)

Related works:
Journal Article: The economic impacts of a hypothetical foot and mouth disease outbreak in Australia (2023)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-338

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers from Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Mark Horridge ().