Online analysis of epidemics with variable infection rate

Yurii, Nesterov ()
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Yurii, Nesterov: CORE, Université catholique de Louvain

No 2020025, LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE from Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE)

Abstract: In this paper, we continue development of the new epidemiological model [10], which is suitable for analyzing and predicting the propagation of COVID-19 epidemics. This is a discrete-time model allowing a reconstruction of the dynamics of asymptomatic virus holders using the available daily statistics on the number of new cases. We suggest to use a new indicator, the total inflection rate, to distinguish the propagation and recession modes of the epidemic. We check our indicator on the available data for eleven different countries and for the whole world. Our reconstructions are very precise. In several cases, we are able to detect the exact dates of the disastrous political decisions, ensuring the second wave of the epidemics. It appears that for all our examples the decisions made on the basis of the current number of new cases are wrong. Int his paper, we suggest a reasonable alternative. Our analysis shows that all tested countries are in a dangerous zone except Sweden.

Date: 2020-07-01
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cor:louvco:2020025

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