Committing to Fiscal Policy: The Influence of the U.S. President on Consumer Confidence and Output

Philipp Adämmer and T. Philipp Dybowski

No 5216, CQE Working Papers from Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster

Abstract: This paper examines whether the U.S. president's fiscal commitment raises confidence and ultimately output. We analyze 80,545 U.S. presidential speeches by using a probabilistic topic model to construct a continuous measure on the president's commitment to fiscal policy. Impulse responses from a SVAR model confirm that a stronger commitment temporarily boosts consumer confidence which then stimulates output.

Keywords: topic model; fiscal policy; SVAR; confidence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C82 D72 D83 E62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 9 pages
Date: 2016-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-sog
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cqe:wpaper:5216

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