Refugee Migration and Electoral Outcomes

Christian Dustman (), Kristine Vasiljeva and Anna Damm ()
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Christian Dustman: University College London and CReAM
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Christian Dustmann

No 1619, RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series from Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM)

Abstract: To estimate the causal effect of refugee migration on voting outcomes in parliamentary and municipal elections in Denmark, our study is the first that addresses the key problem of immigrant sorting by exploiting a policy that assigned refugee immigrants to municipalities on a quasi-random basis. We find that – in all but the most urban municipalities - allocation of larger refugee shares between electoral cycles leads to an increase in the vote share not only for parties with an anti-immigration agenda but also for centre-right parties, while the vote share for centre-left parties decreases. However, in the largest and most urban municipalities refugee allocation has – if anything – the opposite effect on vote shares for anti-immigration parties. We demonstrate response heterogeneity according to municipal characteristics, with a more pronounced response in less urban municipalities in which the pre-policy shares of both immigrants and the more affluent is high, and in urban municipalities with high unemployment. At the same time, higher pre-policy crime rates are associated with more support for anti-immigration parties in response to refugee allocation in both urban and non-urban municipalities. We also find some evidence that refugee allocation influences voter turnout. Moreover, it has a large impact on the decision of anti-immigration parties’ choice of where to stand for municipal election.

Keywords: immigration; political preferences; re-distribution; welfare; random allocation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H53 I38 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-mig, nep-pbe, nep-pol and nep-ure
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (109)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Refugee Migration and Electoral Outcomes (2019)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:crm:wpaper:1619

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