COVID-19: Reduced forms have gone viral, but what do they tell us?

Léa BOU Sleiman () and Germain Gauthier ()
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Léa BOU Sleiman: CREST, Polytechnique.
Germain Gauthier: CREST, Polytechnique.

No 2020-32, Working Papers from Center for Research in Economics and Statistics

Abstract: This paper discusses mitigation policy evaluation in the context of a pandemic. We take the SIRD model as a benchmark for epidemic dynamics and describe the theoretical implications of these dynamics for reduced form estimation. We show that, without additional theoretical structure, agnostic reduced form estimations that have been used in the literature are subject to an omitted variable bias, which in turn affects both the identification of treatment effects and counterfactual analysis.

Pages: 25 pages
Date: 2020-12-16, Revised 2021-01-18
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm
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