The direct and indirect economic consequences of climate damage in poor countries

John Knight

No 2023-06, CSAE Working Paper Series from Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford

Abstract: The predictions of the adverse effects of greenhouse gas emissions on climate change are now accepted. Somewhat less attention has been given to the economic, social, and political consequences. The three interact: the former will have social and political effects, which in turn will harm economies and economic well-being. This analysis of poor countries draws on much recent evidence and various projections. Climate damage contributes to internal political instability and conflict. There is a risk that poor countries will be driven down economically, so reducing the capacity of their governments: some will become fragile states. Internal migration is likely to become a central policy issue. However, international migration will also grow. Climate damage will drag countries into both cooperation and conflict with each other. The effects on sending countries, contiguous countries, and destination countries are examined. This scenario presented is predictive but should be taken as a warning.

Keywords: climate change; international migration; domestic and international conflicts; global warming; displacement of population (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env, nep-int, nep-mig and nep-pke
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:csa:wpaper:2023-06

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