Forecasting Human Capital of EU Member Countries Accounting for Sociocultural Determinants

Guillaume Marois, Patrick Sabourin and Alain Bélanger
Additional contact information
Guillaume Marois: World Poupulation Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Patrick Sabourin: World Poupulation Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Alain Bélanger: Centre Urbanisation Culture Société, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique

JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, 2019, vol. 85, issue 3, 231-269

Abstract: Inclusion of additional dimensions to population projections can lead to an improvement in the overall quality of the projections and to an enhanced analytical potential of derived projections such as literacy skills and labor force participation. This paper describes the modeling of educational attainment of a microsimulation projection model of the European Union countries. Using ordered logistic regressions on five waves of the European Social Survey, we estimate the impact of mother's education and other sociocultural characteristics on educational attainment and implement them into the microsimulation model. Results of the different projection scenarios are contrasted to understand how the education of the mother and sociocultural variables may affect projection outcomes. We show that a change in the impact of mother's education on children's educational attainment may have a big effect on future trends. Moreover, the proposed approach yields more consistent population projection outputs for specific subpopulations.

Keywords: Projection; Education; European Union; Europe; Microsimulation; Sociocultural; Human Capital; Population (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C00 C15 C53 I24 J1 J15 J24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-09-01
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1017/dem.2019.4 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ctl:louvde:v:85:y:2019:i:3:p:231-269

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics from Cambridge University Press Place Montesquieu 3, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium). Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sebastien SCHILLINGS ().