Testing fiscal sustainability in Poland: a Bayesian analysis of cointegration

Andrea Silvestrini

No 2007040, Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) from Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques

Abstract: Fiscal sustainability is a central topic for most of the transition economics of Eastern Europe. This paper focuses on a particular country : Poland. The main purpose is to investigate, empirically, whether the post-transition fiscal policy is consistent with the intertemporal budget constraint, used as a formal theoretical framework. To test debt stabilization, the empirical analysis is made in two steps in which different inferential approaches are adopted. In the first step we perform the preliminary unit roots analysis and the selection of the cointegation rank using parametric and bootstrap procedures. In the second step we apply Bayesian inference to the estimation of the cointegrating vector and of the adjustment parameters. In this way, we experiment the usefulness of Bayesian inference in precisely assessing the magnitude of the cointegrating vector. Moreover, we show to what extent the likelihood of the data is important in revising the available prior information, relying on numerical integration techniques.

Keywords: Bayesian inference; fiscal sustainability; cointegration; bootstrap (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C32 E62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 42
Date: 2007-12-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mac and nep-tra
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Testing fiscal sustainability in Poland: a Bayesian analysis of cointegration (2010)
Working Paper: Testing fiscal sustainability in Poland: a Bayesian analysis of cointegration (2010)
Working Paper: Testing fiscal sustainability in Poland: a Bayesian analysis of cointegration (2007)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ctl:louvec:2007040

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