Speed of Convergence in a Malthusian World: Weak or Strong Homeostasis?

Arnaud Deseau

No 2023010, LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES from Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)

Abstract: Standard Malthusian models predict that a productivity or population shock modify income per capita in the short run. In the long run, however, population pressures make income per capita gradually come back to its steady state. I investigate the duration of this short-run fluctuation, estimating the speed of convergence of Malthusian economies to their GDP per capita and population steady-states. To do so, I first build and calibrate a Malthusian model capturing explicitly the idea that marriages are postponed (advanced) and fertility potential of couples reduced (augmented) during depressions (expansions). I then also run β-convergence regressions on historical panel data. I find consistent evidence of weak homeostasis, with a half-life of about one century. It implies that early modern data may display high persistence without necessarily rejecting the Malthusian hypothesis.

Keywords: Convergence; Homeostasis; Malthusian dynamics; Preventive check; Marriage; Fertility; Malthusian model; β -convergence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: N10 N13 N33 O10 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-03-16
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-evo, nep-gro, nep-his and nep-mac
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Related works:
Journal Article: Speed of convergence in a Malthusian world: Weak or strong homeostasis? (2024)
Working Paper: Speed of convergence in a Malthusian world: Weak or strong homeostasis? (2024)
Working Paper: Speed of Convergence in a Malthusian World: Weak or Strong Homeostasis? (2023)
Working Paper: Speed of Convergence in a Malthusian World: Weak or Strong Homeostasis? (2023)
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