A Time Series Analysis of the Shanghai and New York Stock Price Indices

Gregory Chow and Caroline Lawler
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Gregory Chow: Department of Economics, Princeton University
Caroline Lawler: Department of Economics, Princeton University

Annals of Economics and Finance, 2003, vol. 4, issue 1, 17-35

Abstract: A time series analysis of the Shanghai and New York Stock Exchange composite price indices is provided to compare the weekly rates of return and volatilities of these two markets and to study their co-movement in 1992-2002. The rate of return and volatility of the Shanghai market were higher. The rates of returns in the two markets were approximately serially uncorrelated and mutually uncorrelated. Volatility, as measured by the absolute change in the rate of return, has positive serially correlations in both markets as expected, but the autoregressions are temporarily unstable. Surprisingly the volatility measures of the two markets are significantly negatively correlated. Volatility in each market was found to Granger cause volatility in the other market negatively. This spurious correlation is explained by the negative correlations of macroeconomic fundamentals in the United States and China as indicated by a negative correlation between the rates of change in their GDP while their capital markets are not integrated. The analysis has implications for the use of autoregressions and Granger causality tests, and the interpretation of spurious correlation.

Keywords: Time series analysis; Rate of return; Volatility; Autoregressions; Granger causality; Spurious correlation; Shanghai stock price; New York stock price (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 G1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (18)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cuf:journl:y:2003:v:4:i:1:p:17-35

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